Miles City, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS65 KBYZ 222221
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
321 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of strong winds along the western foothills beginning
  tonight and lasting through the week. Potentially dangerous
  crosswinds developing Wednesday through Friday.

- Periods of gusty winds across the plains, beginning Wednesday.

- Periods of heavy snow over the Beartooth-Absaroka Mountains late
  Monday night through Wednesday; rain and snow showers expected
  at lower elevations.

- Potential for a dose of colder air by the end of the week,
  along with potential overrunning snowfall. High uncertainty
  exists so monitor the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Saturday...

An active weather pattern is in store for the week. Ridging will
build over the Northern Rockies through Monday, along with an
increasing pressure gradient over the Paradise Valley and
Absaroka/Beartooths. Soundings continue to show an inversion over
the valley tonight, bringing gusty crosswinds to Livingston and
Nye. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 8pm this evening until 11am
Tuesday. The strongest period of winds for the gap locations will
be Monday night into Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 60 mph.

Additionally, gusty winds are possible for Big Timber and the
Melville foothills. There is a High Wind Watch in effect for these
areas from 11am Monday until 5am Tuesday. This aspect of Mondays
forecast is very tricky. Most models depict a strong inversion
that does not erode tomorrow for Big Timber, despite soundings
showing winds upwards of 50 knots mixing down just above the
surface. A few models, especially the NAM, do resolve the
inversion Monday evening/night, with nearly 40-50 knot gusts at
the surface. Confidence remains murky at best, though the main
message is that windy conditions are forecast with gusts in the
40s to 50s mph.

Ridging will begin to move eastward, along with a surface trough,
bringing surface pressure rises and an upper shortwave. This will
end the strongest winds for the gap locations, though gusty winds
will continue through much of the week. Across the rest of the
area, breezy conditions are forecast with gusts in the 20s to 30s
mph, highest in the far east. Precipitation is shown accompanying
this wave, beginning a period of heavy snowfall for south and west
facing aspects of the Absaroka/Beartooths. Precipitation across
the lower elevations looks to be a rain/snow mix. A backdoor cold
front is shown over the east, though below freezing temps don`t
quite make it all the way into the central and west until the
precipitation has passed. Another gradient over the west looks to
setup, bringing another window of gusty winds to the gap locations
as well.

A more potent wave and front will move through on Wednesday,
bringing an even windier period along with more precipitation.
Currently, the frontal passage looks to be Wednesday morning. The
favorable pressure gradient for the gap locations will shift to a
west-east orientation favoring US-191. Along with the gradient,
steep lapse rates (greater than 7.5C/km) and 700mb winds of 40-50
knots are depicted. Though precipitation may hinder the onset of
these winds, a few strong gusts with showers is possible. Wind
gusts are shown increasing into the 50s and 60s mph, behind the
front for the US-191 corridor from Big Timber through Harlowton.
Wind gusts across the plains are forecast to climb into the 30s
and 40s mph, with locally greater gusts into the 50s mph for
higher hills west of Billings.

Models are showing even stronger winds Thursday into Friday
across the west, with a strong west-gradient and 700mb winds in
excess of 50 knots. There is increasing confidence and concern for
strong to dangerous wind gusts from Big Timber through Harlowton,
as ensemble guidance remains consistent in showing gusts in the
60s mph.

Circling back on precipitation, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect
from 11pm Monday until 5pm Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of
10 to 20 inches are forecast. In addition to falling snow,
stronger winds could result in significant blowing and drifting
snow. The combination of these factors may increase avalanche
danger as well. Due to an extended dry spell and weak winter,
please heed caution when recreating and check with mtavalanche.com
before heading out.

Across the lower elevations, another period of mixed precip with
several hundredths of an inch to a quarter inch of liquid
precipitation are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday.

Northwest flow looks to prevail to end the week, keeping the
mentioned strong winds over the west. Uncertainty remains high
with forecast temperatures, as 850mb spread in the ensembles shows
near normal temps, with the potential for much colder temps. For
now, high temperatures are forecast in the 40s and 50s all week,
with cooler temperatures possible with precip on Wednesday.
Additionally, while the GFS which is warmer and drier, the EC
shows another wave and an Arctic front dropping in next weekend.

Continue to monitor the forecast this week looks to be quite
active.

Matos

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the forecast area tonight and into
Monday. SW winds begin to increase along the western foothills
(KLVM) by this evening, increasing overnight. The chance of gusts
over 50 mph at KLVM is 90% for tonight through Monday evening. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/055 036/050 034/051 029/056 031/051 016/035 015/040
    00/E    35/W    65/W    10/N    13/J    52/J    21/B
LVM 032/054 037/048 033/045 026/048 030/048 023/042 022/044
    00/N    35/W    75/W    00/N    12/J    32/J    21/B
HDN 017/058 033/049 031/052 026/059 027/054 014/038 013/042
    00/B    36/W    77/W    10/N    13/J    43/J    22/J
MLS 015/052 032/045 026/047 029/054 030/048 014/030 014/036
    00/B    22/W    55/W    00/N    13/J    21/B    11/B
4BQ 017/058 033/045 030/048 028/054 029/050 015/033 013/039
    00/B    13/W    47/W    10/U    12/J    32/J    11/B
BHK 010/049 028/041 022/044 023/048 023/040 008/024 008/032
    00/U    22/W    46/W    00/N    12/J    22/J    11/B
SHR 019/058 030/047 026/048 018/055 025/053 013/036 011/041
    00/B    16/W    58/W    10/U    12/W    53/J    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
      Tuesday FOR ZONES 65-66.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday evening through
      Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONE 67.
     High Wind Watch in effect from Monday morning through late
      Monday night FOR ZONES 141-172.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings